Speaking during the Meet-the-Press briefing organised by the Presidential Media Team at the State House, Abuja, Ahmed explained that while falling petroleum product prices may appear beneficial to consumers, they pose serious economic challenges for oil-dependent countries like Nigeria.
He cited a recent drop in crude oil prices—from $73 to $60 per barrel in a single day—as a stark example of how revenue inflows are being disrupted. He also highlighted domestic challenges such as pipeline vandalism and declining production, which further worsen the situation.
“As consumers, we’re happy that prices are dropping. But as a nation, it’s not good for our economy because our revenue inflow is significantly affected,” Ahmed said.
He pointed to the unpredictability of U.S. economic policies, particularly during Trump’s administration, as a major contributor to market volatility.
“What destabilized the market was the inconsistency in U.S. policies. President Trump would announce one direction today, then reverse it the next day. That made it difficult for global markets to plan or forecast accurately.”
Ahmed also referred to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) report showing Nigeria’s oil output had dropped to around 1.4 million barrels per day.
“The global oil market has been volatile—not just oil, but the entire global economy—because of aggressive U.S. tariff policies. These weren’t just targeted at China but at several countries,” he noted.
“Investors are reacting with uncertainty. Many now engage in day trading because they can’t predict what the next policy announcement might bring. This uncertainty contributes to the continuous decline in oil and refined product prices.”
He explained that the U.S. government’s push to lower crude oil prices—aiming for below $50 per barrel—by encouraging increased domestic exploration, has also contributed to oversupply and global price drops.
Ahmed acknowledged the mixed impact of lower prices on Nigeria. While they may seem like a win for consumers, they reduce the country's earnings from crude oil exports and weaken national reserves and the value of the naira.
“If the crude oil price drops by $10 per barrel, the implications on our economy, reserves, and currency are massive,” he said. “So yes, consumers are happy, but as a nation, our fiscal health suffers.”
The NMDPRA CEO also revealed significant progress in Nigeria’s petrol supply chain. According to him, petrol imports dropped from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres per day by April 13, 2025.
He credited the 670% increase in local petrol production to the phased restart of the Port Harcourt Refining Company in late November and additional output from modular refineries.
In August 2024, local production was virtually non-existent. By early April 2025, local refineries were producing 26.2 million litres per day, up from just 3.4 million litres in September.
Despite these gains, the combined supply has only surpassed the government’s 50 million litres per day consumption benchmark twice in the past eight months—recording 56 million litres in November and 52.3 million litres in February.
In March, supply dipped slightly below target to 51.5 million litres, and by mid-April, it had dropped further to 40.9 million litres.
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